Manchester's Autumn Gambit

Introduction

In the crisp autumn air of Manchester, the Conservative Party convened for its annual conference in October 2025 not as a party of government, but as an opposition in profound crisis. The political atmosphere was heavy with a sense of existential threat, as polling data consistently painted a grim picture of a party languishing in third place, haemorrhaging support to both the Labour government on its left and, more alarmingly, to Reform UK on its right ³⁸. The conference, therefore, was not merely a routine political gathering but a stage for a dramatic and high-risk attempt at reinvention. The leadership, under pressure to present a compelling vision, chose a path of radical departure, unveiling a suite of policies that signalled a decisive break from the cross-party consensus that had governed key areas of British policy for over a decade.

The core of this new platform rested on two pillars: a dramatic reversal of environmental energy policy and a populist appeal to struggling high street businesses. The pledge to slash household energy bills by dismantling green levies and subsidies represented a direct challenge to the established net-zero trajectory, a framework largely constructed and maintained by previous Conservative governments ^{7, 8}. Similarly, the promise to abolish business rates for a significant portion of the retail and hospitality sector was a bold, expensive gesture aimed at a key constituency feeling abandoned in the face of economic headwinds ^{2, 6}. These announcements were accompanied by a sharpening of rhetoric on cultural issues and a continued, albeit contentious, dialogue about the party's relationship with its political rival, Reform UK. This collection of proposals, delivered against a backdrop of internal party anxiety and external political pressure, constitutes a significant moment in contemporary British politics, demanding a detailed and dispassionate analysis of its origins, its substance, and its far-reaching implications.

The Political Context: A Party in Search of a Purpose

To comprehend the radical nature of the policies announced in Manchester, it is essential to understand the precarious political position in which the Conservative Party found itself in late 2025. Having been in opposition for over a year, the party had failed to make significant inroads against a new Labour government. More critically, it faced an unprecedented challenge from its right flank. Opinion polls in the run-up to the conference consistently showed the Conservatives trailing not only Labour but also Reform UK, with their average support languishing at just 16 percent ³⁸. This electoral decline reflected a deeper crisis of identity. The party appeared trapped in a pincer movement, squeezed between a resurgent right-wing populism articulated by Reform and the centrist appeal of the Liberal Democrats in its traditional heartlands ³⁸.

The conference slogan, "Stronger economy, stronger borders," was intended to project an image of competence and control, yet it rang hollow with an electorate that, according to polls, overwhelmingly felt the party was not ready to return to government ³⁸. The leadership of Kemi Badenoch, who had taken the helm after the last election, was under intense pressure. Her initial attempts to unify the party had been complicated by a perceived reluctance to distance herself from the controversial legacies of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, a stance that had reportedly concerned senior party figures ³⁸. The result was a party that appeared to be talking to itself, resorting to what one commentator described as "ancestor worship," exemplified by a prominent display of Margaret Thatcher's outfits at the conference venue ³⁸.

This internal struggle was happening in parallel with the meteoric rise of Reform UK. Under the de facto leadership of Nigel Farage, Reform had successfully positioned itself as the true inheritor of the Brexit mandate and a more authentic voice for "small-c" conservative voters disillusioned with the previous Conservative government's record on taxation and immigration ^{21, 27}. The threat was no longer theoretical; it was an electoral reality that shaped every strategic decision made by the Conservative leadership. The announcements at the Manchester conference, therefore, can be seen as a direct response to this threat. They were a calculated attempt to outflank Reform on key issues, neutralise its appeal, and win back the voters who had abandoned the Conservative fold. The policies were not developed in a vacuum; they were forged in the crucible of a desperate electoral fight for the soul of the British right.

A Green Reversal: The Cheap Power Plan

The centrepiece of the Conservative policy blitz was the "Cheap Power Plan," unveiled by the Shadow Energy Secretary, Claire Coutinho. The headline promise was a striking one: a future Conservative government would cut the average household electricity bill by £165 per year, a reduction of approximately 20 percent from the prevailing rate of just over £850 ^{7, 8}. This was to be achieved not through new technological investment or efficiency drives, but by the legislative dismantling of two core components of the United Kingdom's established green energy framework: the carbon tax on electricity generation and the Renewables Obligation (RO) subsidy scheme for wind farms ^{13, 14}.

Deconstructing the Carbon Tax

The first target of the plan was the carbon tax, a levy on fossil fuels used to generate electricity. Coutinho argued that this tax was a primary driver of high energy bills, asserting that it accounted for over 30 percent of the cost of gas-powered electricity ^{24, 44}. The Conservative critique extended beyond the direct cost of gas generation. They argued that the carbon tax created an artificially high wholesale price for electricity, which in turn inflated the profits of all generators, including wind and solar farms, at the direct expense of the consumer ^{7, 44}. The party laid blame on the Labour government's decision earlier in 2025 to align the UK's carbon tax with that of the European Union, a move they claimed had increased the tax by 70 percent since January of that year ⁷. By axing the tax, the Conservatives claimed they would "instantly" cut bills by almost £8 billion annually ^{15, 24}.

This proposal represents a fundamental departure from the principle of carbon pricing, a market-based mechanism designed to disincentivise the use of polluting fossil fuels and encourage investment in cleaner alternatives. For years, a carbon price has been a cornerstone of UK climate policy, enjoying a degree of cross-party support and seen as essential for meeting legally mandated emissions reduction targets. The Conservative argument reframed this policy tool not as an environmental necessity but as a direct tax on households, sacrificing long-term climate goals for the promise of immediate financial relief.

Scrapping "Rip-Off Wind Farm Subsidies"

The second element of the plan was the abolition of subsidies provided under the Renewables Obligation (RO) scheme. Coutinho specifically targeted this scheme, which predated the more recent Contracts for Difference (CfD) model, branding it as "Ed Miliband's old rip-off wind farm subsidies" ^{7, 44}. The Renewables Obligation, launched by a Labour government in 2002 and later expanded, requires electricity suppliers to source a specified proportion of their electricity from eligible renewable sources. This creates a market for Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs), which are issued to renewable generators. The Conservatives argued that this system forces consumers to pay excessive, above-market prices for electricity from older wind farms, with some receiving up to three times the market rate ^{8, 14}.

While the RO scheme was closed to new projects from 2017, existing accredited stations continue to receive support. The Conservative proposal would involve primary legislation to repeal this ongoing subsidy scheme ⁷. This move was presented as a common-sense measure to end a "racket" that benefited energy producers at the public's expense ⁴⁴. However, it overlooks the role the RO played in kickstarting the UK's renewable energy industry, providing the long-term certainty needed for initial investment in a nascent sector. The retroactive removal of such a scheme would be a highly controversial move, potentially damaging investor confidence in the UK energy market.

In addition to these core proposals, Coutinho also announced that a future Conservative government would scrap the Labour government's Great British Energy company, calling it a "vanity project that won't cut bills" ^{13, 25}. Furthermore, the party pledged to scrap the ban on new oil and gas licences and reverse the energy profits levy, signalling a renewed embrace of fossil fuel extraction in the North Sea ^{8, 25}.

The Reaction: A Chorus of Condemnation

The reaction to the Cheap Power Plan from environmental groups was swift and scathing. Friends of the Earth labelled the proposals "contradictory nonsense," pointing out that renewable energy is significantly cheaper than new fossil fuel plants and that increasing reliance on gas would only exacerbate the problem of high energy prices, which are overwhelmingly set by the volatile international gas market ⁷. Greenpeace UK echoed this sentiment, with a campaigner stating that the Shadow Energy Secretary was "dead wrong" to suggest that shifting away from clean power would deliver lower bills ⁷. The End Fuel Poverty Coalition argued that there is "no way to lower bills or energy security by prolonging our dependence on gas" ^{18, 32}.

This criticism was not confined to environmental campaigners. Business groups also expressed significant alarm. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which represents over 150,000 businesses, warned that the plan to scrap the UK's overarching climate legislation, the Climate Change Act, would "damage our economy" ¹⁸. Energy UK, a trade body for the energy industry, cautioned that the Climate Change Act provides the "legal bedrock that underpins billions of pounds of international investment in the UK" and that treating it as a "political football is a surefire way to scare off investors" ³². These reactions highlight a deep concern that the short-term political appeal of lower energy bills was being prioritised over long-term economic stability and environmental responsibility. The Labour government's Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, described the Tory policy as "anti-science, anti-jobs, anti-energy security, anti-future," accusing the opposition of abandoning two decades of cross-party consensus on climate change ⁴³.

Remaking the High Street: The Business Rates Revolution

The second major policy announcement at the conference was a radical overhaul of business rates, delivered by the Shadow Chancellor, Sir Mel Stride. In a direct appeal to the owners of struggling high street shops and pubs, Stride pledged that a future Conservative government would "completely abolish business rates for shops and pubs on our high streets" ^{2, 5}. He declared the policy "End of. Finished. Gone," to applause from the conference floor ⁶.

The Burden of Business Rates

Business rates, a tax on non-domestic property, have long been a source of intense frustration for high street businesses. The system is based on the rateable value of a property, which is periodically reassessed. Critics argue that this system disproportionately burdens businesses with a physical presence, such as shops, pubs, and restaurants, compared to online retailers who operate from large, out-of-town warehouses with lower property values. For years, business groups have argued that the high level of business rates has been a major contributing factor to the decline of British high streets, exacerbating the challenges posed by changing consumer habits and the rise of e-commerce ⁹.

The Conservative proposal directly addresses this long-standing grievance. The plan is estimated to cost £4 billion per year and would benefit approximately 250,000 businesses in the retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors ^{2, 5}. The party was clear that local councils, for whom business rates are a key source of revenue, would be "fully compensated" for the shortfall by central government ⁵.

Funding the Pledge: A New Era of Austerity?

The crucial question accompanying any such large-scale tax cut is how it will be funded. Sir Mel Stride linked the business rates pledge directly to a wider programme of significant public spending cuts, outlining a "radical plan to rebuild our economy" ^{5, 6}. He announced that a Conservative government would aim to cut £47 billion from public spending by the end of the next parliament ²⁰.

The proposed savings were to come from several key areas. These included a £23 billion cut to the welfare budget, to be achieved by measures such as replacing payments to people with "low level" mental health conditions with treatment and barring non-citizens from claiming most benefits ²⁰. Further savings would be made by shrinking the Civil Service by around a quarter, saving £8 billion, and slashing the foreign aid budget to just 0.1% of national income, saving £7 billion ²⁰. This fiscal strategy marks a clear ideological dividing line with the Labour government, positioning the Conservatives as the party of fiscal restraint and a smaller state. However, it also raises profound questions about the potential impact of such deep cuts on public services and the social safety net. The Labour Party immediately criticised the plan, with a spokesperson stating that the Conservatives had "made a multibillion-pound pledge to abolish business rates without saying how they'd fund it," dismissing the announcement as a rehash of failed policies ⁵.

A Mixed Reception from Business

While the promise of abolishing business rates was welcomed in principle by many struggling high street firms, the reaction from broader business organisations was more nuanced. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) acknowledged that the plan "could give high streets a boost," but stressed that "it's more fundamental reform of a broken business rates system that is needed" to incentivise investment across all sectors ⁷. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) echoed this view, stating that "while reviving our high streets is important, any changes to the rates system must go further and benefit businesses of all sizes" ⁵.

These responses suggest that while the policy has populist appeal, many in the business community see it as a targeted relief rather than the comprehensive, systemic reform they have long called for. There is a concern that by focusing solely on retail, hospitality, and leisure, the plan fails to address the burden of business rates on other vital sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing and logistics. The debate over business rates is not new; a government interim report published in September 2025 summarised feedback from hundreds of organisations, highlighting a strong consensus that the current system discourages investment and a desire for greater predictability ^{9, 16}. The Conservative pledge, while dramatic, may be seen by some as a politically expedient solution that avoids the more complex challenge of designing a fairer and more sustainable system for the entire economy.

Culture, Identity, and the Union Flag

Beyond the headline-grabbing economic policies, the political atmosphere surrounding the Conservative conference was also charged with the currents of the so-called "culture wars." A notable flashpoint emerged from a seemingly unrelated source: the world of football. Former England footballer and prominent pundit Gary Neville revealed that he had recently ordered the removal of a Union flag from one of his property development sites in Manchester ^{19, 22}.

In a video posted online, Neville, who played for his country 85 times, explained his decision by stating that he believed the flag was being "used in a negative fashion" ¹⁹. He argued that he had not seen such a proliferation of Union flags on building sites in his 15-20 years as a developer and questioned the motivation for their recent appearance, suggesting it was intended to send a divisive message ^{22, 30}. Neville linked this to a broader sense of division in the country, which he attributed in part to "angry, middle-aged white men" and the "devastating effect" of Brexit ^{19, 22}. He called for a return to a "neutral point" and a country of "love, of peace, of harmony" ¹⁹.

Neville's comments, made in the wake of a terror attack at a Manchester synagogue, tapped into a sensitive and complex debate about patriotism, national identity, and the use of symbols in the public square ^{30, 40}. While not an official part of the Conservative conference agenda, the controversy resonated with the party's efforts to position itself as the guardian of British identity and tradition. The debate over the flag served as a microcosm of a wider political strategy to draw clear lines on cultural issues, appealing to a sense of traditional values that the party believes still holds sway with a significant portion of the electorate. This strategy is aimed squarely at voters who may feel alienated by what they perceive as the liberal, metropolitan values of the Labour Party, and it is another front in the battle with Reform UK for the mantle of authentic patriotism. The incident demonstrates how potent symbols like the national flag have become in a polarised political environment, where their meaning and use are fiercely contested.

A New Alliance on the Right? The Shadow of Reform UK

No analysis of the 2025 Conservative conference would be complete without examining the party's complex and often contradictory relationship with Reform UK. The spectre of Nigel Farage's party loomed over the entire event, influencing policy, shaping rhetoric, and prompting intense speculation about the future of the British right. The central question was whether the two parties were destined to be bitter rivals or eventual partners.

The most direct suggestion of a future alliance came from Gawain Towler, a long-time aide to Farage and a member of Reform's governing board ¹⁷. In a podcast interview, Towler hinted at a post-election merger, suggesting that a handful of remaining Tory MPs, potentially under the leadership of a figure like Robert Jenrick, might abandon what he termed a "rump party" and merge with Reform ¹⁷. He drew a historical parallel with the Liberal Unionists, who allied with and eventually merged into the Conservative Party in the late 19th and early 20th centuries ¹⁷. Towler also indicated that Reform was taking an "open-door approach" to Tory defectors, noting that the party's membership had swelled to nearly 250,000, with many new joiners being former Conservatives ¹⁷.

This prospect of a merger or pact has been a recurring theme in 2025. Leaked recordings from earlier in the year suggested that Robert Jenrick, the Shadow Justice Secretary, was determined to find a way to prevent the Conservatives and Reform from competing against each other and splitting the right-wing vote ²⁹. However, the official position from both parties has been one of staunch denial. A Conservative Party spokesperson dismissed reports of a pact as "complete and utter nonsense," stating that the party "will not negotiate with people who want to destroy us" ²¹. Kemi Badenoch has been particularly forceful in her opposition, questioning why the party would ever merge with a rival led by Farage, who she says "wants to destroy the Conservative Party" ²¹.

For his part, Jenrick has publicly ruled out a pact, stating that he wants to "put Reform out of business" and send Nigel Farage "back to retirement" ³⁹. Reform UK has also been officially dismissive, with a spokesperson stating explicitly that "Robert Jenrick will not be joining Reform UK" and that the party is "not interested in doing a deal with the Tories" ^{17, 21}. Nigel Farage himself has described the idea of a pact as "revolting," arguing that his voters feel betrayed by the Conservatives and would not support such an alliance ^{29, 42}.

Despite these public denials, the strategic logic of some form of cooperation remains a topic of intense debate. The Conservative Party's lurch to the right on issues like green energy, immigration, and the European Convention on Human Rights (a policy area where the party has pledged to hold a review into a union-wide withdrawal) can be interpreted as a direct attempt to neutralise the threat from Reform ². By adopting policies that align more closely with Reform's platform, the Conservatives hope to win back defectors. However, this strategy carries the risk of alienating more moderate, centrist voters. The persistent talk of a merger, even if officially denied, highlights the profound ideological realignment underway on the right of British politics and the deep uncertainty about whether the Conservative Party can survive it as a single, unified entity.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on a Rightward Path

The 2025 Conservative Party conference in Manchester was a defining moment for a party at a historical low point. The policy announcements made were not minor adjustments but fundamental shifts in direction, representing a high-stakes gamble to reverse a precipitous decline in political fortunes. The decision to dismantle key pillars of the UK's green energy framework, the radical promise to abolish business rates for the high street, and the continued overtures towards a more culturally conservative stance collectively signal a clear and unambiguous turn to the right.

This strategic pivot is a direct consequence of the political pressure exerted by Reform UK and the party's failure to gain traction against the Labour government. The leadership has calculated that its path back to relevance, and perhaps one day to power, lies not in occupying the centre ground but in consolidating the right-wing vote. The "Cheap Power Plan" is a populist appeal that prioritises immediate cost-of-living concerns over long-term environmental commitments, a trade-off the party is now willing to make explicit. The business rates pledge is a similarly targeted, high-cost intervention designed to win favour with a specific and vocal segment of the electorate.

However, this strategy is fraught with peril. The backlash from environmental groups, scientists, and significant sections of the business community has been intense. Critics warn that abandoning climate targets will not only damage the environment but also undermine the UK's economic competitiveness by creating policy uncertainty and deterring the billions in private investment needed for the green transition. Furthermore, while the spending cuts proposed to fund the tax pledges may appeal to a base concerned with fiscal discipline, they risk alienating a broader public reliant on the services that will inevitably be affected.

Ultimately, the Manchester conference has set the stage for a period of profound ideological conflict in British politics. The Conservative Party has drawn its battle lines, betting its future on a platform that rejects the consensus politics of the recent past. Whether this gambit will succeed in winning back voters from Reform UK without losing even more ground in the centre remains the critical, unanswered question. The policies unveiled in the autumn of 2025 have ensured that the next general election, whenever it may come, will be fought on starkly different terms, with the country facing a clearer choice about its economic, environmental, and social future than it has for a generation.